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Distributions of Job Tenure for U.S. Workers in Selected Industries and Occupations
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| Human and Ecological Risk Assessment (to be published) |
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job tenure, exposure duration, risk assessment, Monte Carlo
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Identifying data to support a distribution or value to describe the length of time that a person may be exposed to contaminants at a hazardous waste site is, in our experience, one of the most challenging tasks in calculating risk estimates. To estimate exposure duration and evaluate potential risks to workers posed by a hazardous waste site, current job tenure is often used as a surrogate for projected job tenure. Surveys cobnducted by the US Bureau of the Census provide data on the length of employment at a current job. By modeling the behavior of US workers based on these survey data, projected job tenure can be inferred. Using January 1987 survey data on the length of employment at a current job, we estimate distributions of projected job tenure for US workers in selected industries and occupations. Our analysis indicates that average projected job tenure is short (in all cases, it was estimated to be less than 54 years) as compared to current job tenure which ranges from 3 years to slightly less than 10 years. The 95th percentile for projected job tenure also exhibits this counter-intuitive result (i.e., projected job tenure is less than the current job tenure).
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